16.01.2014 - The global economic outlook improves

Positive dynamics was observed on major stock markets of the world. The reason for optimism was the revision of the growth forecast in the global economy by the World Bank. According to analysts of the bank, in 2014, GDP growth in the world will be 3.2%. The previous forecast had expected a 3.0% increase.

In addition, the course of trading was influenced by the publication of macroeconomic data. Thus, it became known that Germany’s GDP last year grew by 0.4%, compared with growth of 0.7% in 2012. Export growth was 0.6%, against 3.2% a year earlier. Eurozone trade surplus increased in November to 16.0 billion euros, growth was expected to 16.7 billion. The release of data on producer price index, which rose 0.4% with growth forecast at 0.5%, had little effect on the course of trade.

The Beige Book publication has not brought surprises. According to the Book, employment increased in 2/3 of the Fed regions, the housing market continues to recover across the country. IMF chief Christine Lagarde said that the ECB needs to stimulate the economy of the eurozone, in addition she noted a growing risk of deflation in developed economies.

On this background U.S. indexes renewed historical highs, and European reached their highest levels in six years.
Quotations of euro corrected after decline on the previous day. The growth of price is limited by the resistance at 1.3660. Support lies at 1.3550. The course of trading today may be influenced by the ECB monthly report (09:00 GMT), data on consumer price inflation in the Eurozone (10:00 GMT) and in the U.S. (13:30 GMT). At 15:00 GMT, will be released the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of Philadelphia.

The price of British pound continues to move within the triangle. A signal to sell will be fixing the price below 1.6320, and for purchase – above the level of 1.6460. Today important macro data is not expected in the UK, so the course of trading will be influenced by external f

Quotations of USD/JPY are consolidated near the level of 104.70. After the strong growth on the day before occurs the need for correction. In such case, the support lies at 103.90. With continued growth, the price can reach a local maximum at 105.40. Statistics that came out today was mixed. The index of business activity in the service sector in Japan in November increased by 0.6% vs. 0.8% forecasted. At the same time, domestic orders for machinery jumped by 9.3%, growth was expected only by 1.2%.

After breaking the strong support at 0.89, the quotes of Australian dollar collapsed, passing the local minimum at 0.8840. The reason for collapse was the negative statistics on the labor market in Australia. It was expected that employment growth will be 10.3 thousand, but the number of employed people fell unexpectedly to 22.6 thousands.

Yesterday was published a report on oil and petroleum products inventories in the U.S. Analysts had expected inventories to fell by 0.7 million barrels, but they decreased by 7.7 million. This fact triggered a wave of purchases on the market. As a result, the price of Light Sweet has fixed above $ 94 per barrel. With continued growth the price can reach the level of 95.60. Support is at 92.80.

Gold price moves within the local rising channel and now is consolidating near a strong level in 1242. Further progress will depend on the statistics on the housing market and industrial production in the U.S., which will be released on Friday. Low demand for physical gold and growth on the stock markets of the world continues to put pressure on the price of defensive assets like gold. Growth is limited by the level of 1265. Support is at 1220.

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