16.04.2014 - ​Markets are preparing to celebrate Easter

Major U.S. stock indexes ended the trading session near the previous close. Positive reports from General Electric and Morgan Stanley have compensated negative results caused by the reports of the companies Google and IBM. Also yesterday was published macro statistics on the number of initial unemployment claims, which has grown to 304 thousand, against the forecast of 316 thousand. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of Philadelphia in April rose to 16.6, against the forecast of 9.6. Better weather conditions positively affect the macroeconomic statistics in the United States. Upside potential of the U.S. market is limited and we expect a a decrease of U.S. indexes in the long term.

The price of euro yesterday began to grow amid falling producer price index in Germany by 0.3%, against the forecast of a 0.1% increase. Growth stopped after the release of data on the U.S. labor market and euro continues to consolidate around the level of 1.3810. Low volatility is explained by long weekend in the Eurozone. We do not expect sharp price movements in the coming days, but keep the long-term negative outlook for the euro. On Monday, the euro area and the United States will continue to celebrate Easter and the activity of traders will be minim

The price of the British pound started to correct and now is consolidating below 1.3800. A drop in prices was caused by the strengthening of the U.S. dollar after the release of statistics on the U.S. labor market. Today and on Monday in the UK is a day off and we expect that the price will continue to consolidate around current levels, but keep a long-term positive outlook for the pound.

The price of USD/JPY continues to grow gradually within local uptrend. Despite the fact that the expectations of additional stimulus have weakened after the statement of the Bank of Japan, many experts insist on additional measures similar to the U.S. program of quantitative easing. Today, the growth of quotations was due to data on reduction of tertiary index of business activity in the service sector in Japan by 1.0%, against the forecast of a 0.2% rise. On Monday, we should pay attention to the trade balance of Japan.

The price of the Australian dollar is consolidating near the level of 0.9330. Reason for the decline of AUD/USD yesterday was the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. In the absence of important macro and long weekend, we expect low volatility of quotations and maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the national currency of Australia.

The price of the New Zealand dollar resumed its decline on the background of data from China, which is the main trade partner. Thus, the Ministry of Commerce of China has reported a decline in foreign direct investments in the economy by 1.5% per year, against the forecast of growth by 2.0%. The main risk for the New Zealand dollar is a slowdown in China's industry. We expect downward dynamics in the near future, with the resumption of growth in the medium term.

The price of an American benchmark Light Sweet crude oil continues to consolidate near the level of 104 dollars per barrel. High oil prices are supported by the comments of the head of the Fed on the prospects of U.S. economic growth, as well as the tense situation in Ukraine. Support for prices has data on the growth of business activity in the manufacturing sector of Philadelphia. Downward pressure on prices has an increase in oil supplies from Libya, after the removal of the blockade from one of the ports. We expect a decrease in oil prices after removing tension in Ukraine.

The price of gold continues to consolidate around $ 1,300 per troy ounce. Positive reports of U.S. corporations support the demand for risky assets at a high level, which reduces the interest in defensive assets such as gold. Demand for the metal on the Asian markets remains quite weak. We expect higher gold prices in case of decline on the stock markets and rising tensions in Ukraine. We maintain a long-term positive outlook for gold.

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