16.05.2013 - Investors are investing less in China
Major U.S. stock indexes continued to decline on a background of mixed macro statistics. Thus, the number of initial unemployment claims fell to the lowest level since May 2007 - 297 thousand. Positive from labor market was offset by a decline in industrial production in April by 0.6% compared with an expected 0.4% growth. Decrease was due the fall in the energy sector because of the warming after the unusually cold winter in North America. Today the course of trading will be affected by housing data (12:30 GMT) and consumer confidence in May (13:55 GMT). We expect further decline of U.S. indexes in the medium and long term.
European stock indexes fell again on the background of data on GDP growth in the euro area. Thus, the French economy in Q1 showed 0% growth, with an expected growth of 0.4%, Italy's GDP fell by 0.1%, while the euro area GDP grew only by 0.2%, which is 2 times less than the forecast. At the same time, Germany's GDP grew by 0.8%, which is 0.1% better than expected. Positive trend in the German economy emerged due to increased domestic consumption and the construction sector, which compensated decline in exports. Today we should pay attention to the trade balance of the Eurozone. On Monday, will be published the monthly report of the German central bank. We expect a decline on European markets in the medium and long term.
We see a negative dynamics on the markets of the Asia-Pacific region. Markets are falling on the background of negative mood at the U.S. markets. Growth in industrial production in Japan by 0.7% in March, compared with an expected growth of 0.3% could not support the Japanese market. Strengthening of the yen also weighed on the index. In addition, investors were disappointed by a slowdown in foreign direct investment in China to 5.0% in April against 5.5% in March. We maintain a long-term negative outlook for the stock indexes in China, Japan and Australia.