17.02.2016 - Labor market data in the UK today will greatly influence the Pound
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro stabilized after recent decline against the US dollar. It should be noted that the statistics on the index of business sentiment of the Eurozone yesterday was published, which fell to 13.6 in February against the forecast of 10.3 and 22.7 in January. At the same time, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of New York totaled -16.6 in February, against 19.4 in the previous month. Today, the dynamics of trading data on the US housing market will affect (13:30 GMT) and the volume of industrial production in the US (14:15 GMT). Special attention should be paid to the minutes of the previous meeting of the Fed (19:00 GMT). According to our estimates, in the coming weeks, the euro will decline against the US dollar amid expectations of additional stimulus measures of inflation in the euro area. Our medium-term outlook also remains negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound showed a sharp drop yesterday amid falling the country's stock markets, as well as the publication of conflicting statistics on inflation in the country. Thus, the core consumer price index fell to 1.2% in January, which is 0.2% less than the previous figure, and consumer price inflation rose to 0.3%, which is 0.1% higher than the previous value. Today we can see a strong price movement after the publication of statistics on the labor market in the country (09:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we recommend accumulating short positions.
Currency trading the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen resumed its rise against the US dollar on the background of oil price volatility and uncertainty of investors about the situation on the global stock markets. Investors are waiting for the publication of statistics on inflation in the US, which will be held on Friday. The growth of the consumer price index will increase the likelihood of earlier Fed raising interest rates. Today has been published statistics on the volume of domestic orders for engineering products in Japan, with the exception of orders for ships and construction equipment, which rose by 4.2% in December, which is 0.4% less than the forecast, but it is better than the decline by 14.4% In November. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the data on the trade balance of Japan, which traditionally have a strong influence on the course of trading. According to our estimates the expected measures to reduce the price of yen by the Bank of Japan and forecast of strengthening of the US dollar will lead to a resumption of the negative dynamics of the Japanese currency.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar fell against the background of falling prices for commodities and due to technical factors. Today was published statistics on the index of leading indicators in Australia, which rose to 0.0%, against a decline of 0.3% in November. Tomorrow will be released of an important report on the labor market in Australia, which can improve the mood of investors. The price of the national currency of the country is still heavily dependent on commodity prices and the situation in China. We expect the price decline in the near future and medium term.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continued to decline against the background of a lack of new drivers for growth, strengthening of the US dollar and the weakening of the Australian dollar, which has a strong impact on the New Zealand dollar. It is worth noting that today will be published statistics on producer price index in New Zealand (21:45 GMT). We expect the resumption of speculation about lower interest rates RBNZ, which will adversely affect the price of New Zealand Dollar. Our outlook remains negative.