17.04.2015 - We are waiting for the signal to sell oil
The price of gold continues to consolidate near the important level of $ 1,200 per troy ounce. Quotes growth is constrained by weak demand from investment funds and the expectation of rising interest rates of the Fed, which has a negative effect on gold. At the same time, the demand for defensive assets can grow in the absence of progress in talks on restructuring Greek debt. Correction on the stock markets may also increase interest in defensive assets. Our medium-term outlook remains positive, but in the near future we can see the stock price correction.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil continues to consolidate below 58.00 after strong growth in the previous days. OPEC production growth in March rose by 800 barrels, which puts pressure on oil prices. At the same time in the 3rd quarter of this year is expected the drop in US crude oil production, but it will be offset by an increase in OPEC production, which tries to maintain market share and is increasing production. At the same time, investors expect a final decision on Iran's nuclear program, which will be made in June and can lead to an increase in oil supplies to the market at 1.5-1.8 million barrels of oil per day in 2016. We forecast the change of the current positive trend for oil and recommend to wait for the signal for opening short positions. Our medium-term outlook remains negative with the target at $ 40 per barrel.