17.05.2016 - Oil may rise to 50 dollars per barrel

The price of gold rose yesterday against the publication of weak statistics on the manufacturing PMI in New York, which fell to -9.0, against the forecast of 7.2. In addition, the weakening of the US dollar has traditionally supported the growth of gold. Today we see a decrease in quotations before the publication of important statistics on consumer price index in the US (12:30 GMT). We recall that this index has a key influence on the Fed's decision on raising interest rates this year. Also, we should keep an eye on the housing market data in the US (12:30 GMT), which can also greatly affect the course of trading. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for gold, but the fall on the stock markets can significantly increase interest in defensive assets such as gold.

The price of Light Sweet crude oil continued to rise after Goldman Sachs said about a shortage of oil in May due to a decline in production in the US, as well as supply disruptions in Nigeria, where production fell to 1.65 million barrels per day compared to 2.2 million barrels day earlier. In addition, the clashes in Libya have also led to problems with the supply of oil from the country. Tomorrow will be published data on US oil inventories. We expect a substantial correction in oil prices after the change of the current positive dynamics within which the price may rise to 50 dollars per barrel. Our forecast for the coming months remains negative.

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