17.05.2016 - Statistics on inflation in the US may increase the volatility on the market
American stock indexes showed gains on news about legendary investment manager Warren Buffett invested in Apple shares more than 1 billion dollars and rising oil prices, which supported interest in the shares of the energy sector. Today, the focus will be on the news on inflation and the housing market in the US (12:30 GMT). In addition, today there was published the data on industrial production in the US (16:15 GMT). In the case of rise in inflation, will increase the likelihood of earlier Fed raising interest rates, which is negative for the stock indices. We forecast a drop on the US markets in the coming weeks.
European stocks today showed modest growth against the backdrop of yesterday's rise in US markets. The trade balance of the euro area in March rose to 22.3 billion euros compared with 20.6 billion euros in February. In the UK, was released the data on the consumer price index, which fell to 0.3%, which is 0.2% less than the forecast. This fact has disappointed investors. In addition, investors fear a possible British exit from the EU after the referendum that will take place on 23 June. Tomorrow is forecasted increased activity after the release of reports on the labor market in the UK and inflation in the euro area. Our medium-term outlook for European markets remains positive, but in the near future we may see a drop in the region's markets.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region generally showed an increase on the background of the positive impact of US stock markets. It is worth noting that earlier investors were disappointed by the data on the slower growth in retail sales industrial production in China, which is negative for the entire region. The Japanese market was supported by news on the growth of industrial output by 3.8% in March, which is 0.2% better than expected. Tomorrow, special attention should be paid to the preliminary data on the growth of Japan's GDP in the 1st quarter of this year. Our medium-term outlook for markets in the region remains positive, but there is a likelihood of resumption of the negative dynamics in the near future.