17.06.2015 - The statement the Fed will lead to a strong price movement
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro fell yesterday on rumors about the possible postponement of payment to IMF by 6 months, but in the Greek government has not confirmed this information. Support for the US dollar also was the statistics on the housing market, where the number of building permits issued in May rose to 1.28 million, that was 0.17 million better than the forecast, but the number of housing starts totaled 1.04 million, which is 0, 06 million below expectations. The index of business sentiment fell to 53.7 in euro area in June against the forecast of 60.3. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the consumer price index in the euro area (09:00 GMT), but the main event of the day will be the Fed's statement on monetary policy (18:00 GMT), which is likely to point to the strong likelihood of higher interest rates before the end of the year, leading to a drop in Euro. We should also pay attention to the outlook for economic growth in the United States. We expect increased volatility and maintain the medium-term negative outlook.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continues to grow gradually, despite the strengthening of the US dollar. The inflation data pleased investors. Thus, the index rose 0.1% in May compared with the same period of the last year. It is worth noting that in April figure showed a decline to -0.1%. Today is forecasted the increased activity of investors in connection with the publication of important statistics on unemployment and wages in the United Kingdom (08:30 GMT). The movement of prices will be constrained by the expectation of the Fed statement. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but we expect growth in the near future.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen remained virtually unchanged over the past few sessions. Prolonged consolidation indicates a strong movement in the near future. The trigger for it is likely to be today's Fed statement on monetary policy. Demand for the yen as a defensive asset is maintained in connection with the Greek crisis. Today has been published statistics on the country's trade balance deficit which in May was 0.18 trillion yen compared to the forecast of 0.17 trillion yen, and the previous value of 0.24 trillion yen. The volatility in the coming days will be high and our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed a decline against the strengthening of the US dollar, falling prices for iron ore, as well as in connection with the publication of weak statistics on the index of leading economic indicators in Australia, which fell by 0.1% in April against the growth by 0.1% in March . Tomorrow will be released a quarterly newsletter published by the Reserve Bank of Australia, which may affect the course of trading, but the main impact on the dynamics of price will have the movement of the US dollar after the Fed statement. We forecast a fall in the price of the Australian dollar in the medium term.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar shows a slight decrease due to the strengthening US dollar and despite the positive statistics on the balance of payments of New Zealand in the 1st quarter. Thus, the surplus totaled 0.66 billion vs. expected 0.27 billion. Tomorrow will be published important statistics on the growth of GDP that may strengthen or partially neutralize the effect of today's Fed statement. We expect a decrease in prices in the medium term.