17.07.2015 - Volatility in the markets decreased
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continues to fall after yesterday's statement of the head of the ECB Mario Draghi, in which he said about waiting for the further growth of the euro area economy, which in the first quarter grew by 0.4% thanks to investments and private consumption. Downside risks are compensated by the soft monetary policy of the ECB, low oil prices and the euro's decline. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the US housing market and the consumer price index (12:30 GMT) and the index consumer confidence from the University of Michigan (14:00 GMT). We maintain a medium-term negative outlook, and expect falling of the price to 1.05 in the coming months.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continued to consolidate after the strong growth earlier this week. Statistics on the index of leading economic indicators, which in May fell by 0.4% against growth of 0.3% in April had a negative impact on investorsâ sentiment. The Bank of England noted the possibility of the beginning of the normalization of monetary policy in case of improving the economic growth of the country. Today, investors will not rush to open new positions before the weekend. Our medium-term view on the British pound is a negative, but in the near future we can see the growth of quotations.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continued to fall against the background of a stronger US dollar after the data on the labor market in America. Thus, the number of initial unemployment claims fell to 281 thousand that was in 4 thousand better than the forecast and 15 thousand less than the previous figure. Today, the dynamics will depend on the statistics from the US. Given the decline in demand for defensive assets, loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and the anticipated rise in interest rates, we expect a further fall in the price of the yen in the medium term.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar corrected upwards after a strong decline caused by speculation on a possible lowering of interest rates of the Reserve Bank of Australia after the Bank of Canada. Today, the support for the Australian currency was the data on the index of leading economic indicators, which rose in May by 0.2%, against a decline of 0.3% in April. According to our estimates, the fall of the Australian dollar will continue in the medium term due to low commodity prices, a stronger US dollar and expectations of lower interest rates of the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar has stabilized after a strong reduction in the price at the beginning of the week caused by rising expectations of further easing of monetary policy in the country. In addition, the course of trading is adversely affected by the price of dairy products, which are the main export commodity of the country. In the near future we may see a correction of price, but in the medium term, with a high probability, quotations will continue to fall within the sustainable downtrend.