17.08.2016 - The probability of a downward correction has increased
American stock indexes yesterday showed a decline against the publication of mixed macroeconomic data and hawkish rhetoric of a number of Fed officials that increased the likelihood of raising interest rates this year. It is worth noting that the consumer price index remained unchanged in July, coinciding with the predictions of analysts. This fact reduces the possibility of raising interest rates in the country this month. Today, the dynamics of trading will depend on the statistics of the US oil inventories (14:30 GMT), as well as the publication of the minutes of the previous Fed meeting (18:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect a decrease in the near future.
European stock indexes show little change today in anticipation of the publication of important news from the US as well as in anticipation of the release of reports on consumer price inflation in the euro area and the minutes of the previous meeting of the ECB tomorrow. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the news on the labor market in the UK (08:30 GMT). According to our forecasts, the labor market in the country will suffer from the decision of the country on leaving the EU in connection with the relocation of a number of international companies from the UK to mainland Europe. After long-term growth and on the background of the risks associated with slowing global economic growth and the results of a British referendum, we maintain a medium-term negative outlook and expect the decrease in the near future.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed different dynamics. Chinese markets have changed significantly after the recent optimism caused by speculation on the possible strengthening of stimulus measures in the country. Support for Japanese assets was the weakening of the yen against the dollar. We recall that the yen significantly strengthened amid growing demand for protective assets. Tomorrow we should pay attention to important data on the trade balance of Japan, and unemployment in Australia. Reduction of the likelihood in the near future has increased significantly. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.