17.10.2014 - Bears decided to take a break

American indexes remained virtually unchanged yesterday. Investors reacted positively to the data on reduction of the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance to 264 thousand, which was the lowest level in 14 years. At the same time the industrial production showed an increase of 1.0% versus 0.4% expected. Increased volatility on the market has also been called the statement of president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis James Bullard on the need to consider the possibility of continuing the asset purchases. Today, trade dynamics will depend on the statistics on the housing market (12:30 GMT) and the index of consumer confidence in the United States (13:55 GMT). Particular attention should be paid to the speech of Fed at 12:30 GMT. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the American indexes.

Major European stock indexes slightly changed yesterday. Investors negatively estimate the economic situation in the euro area, where suddenly began to decrease production in Germany, besides the economy suffers from low inflation and measures to stimulate the economy did not give the expected results. The consumer price index in the euro area fell in September to 0.3%, in line with analysts' forecasts. Today will be released final data on euro area GDP in the second quarter. At the moment, we see no reasons for changing the negative trend and growth is possible only in the case of a correction.

Markets in the Asia-Pacific region show mixed results. The Japanese index decreased despite the weakening of the yen. Investors are concerned about the decline in index of industry in the country. The Chinese market continues to grow after yesterday's data on the growth of credit to the economy, as well as due to the reduction of inflation, which increases the likelihood of new measures to stimulate the economy by the government. At the moment, we do not see drivers for further growth of indexes in the region. We expect a decline on the stock markets in the region in the medium term and maintain a negative outlook.

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