17.11.2014 - The Fed statement will lead to increased volatility on commodity markets
The price of gold remains near the level of $ 1,200 per troy ounce. Quotes growth stopped due to the expectations of today's meeting of the Fed on monetary policy. Some investors expect that the Fed will change the rhetoric about the need to keep interest rates at current levels for a long period of time and will announce further gradual increase in interest rates. If the statement does not show the change in the Fed's intentions with respect to interest rates, we expect growth of quotations of gold. It is worth noting the growth of imports of gold in India by 38% in October to 151.58 tons. India is the second largest oil consumer after China and traditionally increase purchases of gold in the 4th quarter. Due to concerns about growth on the stock markets, we keep positive medium-term outlook and recommend holding long positions in gold.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil continues to decline, but analysts have pointed out the possibility of new projects to stop oil production if the quotes remain at current levels. Stopping these projects worth about 930 billion dollars could lead to a reduction in the daily production of 7.5 million barrels per day, or about 8% of current consumption. Today, the focus will be on the Fed's statement (19:00 GMT), which may lead to an increase in the volatility of the dollar. In addition, will be published forecasts for the growth of the American economy. At 15:30 GMT will be published data on oil and petroleum products in the United States. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on oil and recommend holding short positions.