17.11.2014 - The weakening of the dollar has led to growth on commodity markets
The price of gold has risen dramatically in the last trading session of the week on the weakening of the US dollar, as well as due to the fall in yields of Treasuries. Positive data on retail sales in the US, which in October rose 0.3% against the forecast of growth by 0.2%, and increase consumer confidence index to 89.4, which is 2.1 better prognosis could not affect the upward movement of the price of gold. Demand for defensive assets like gold in the near future will be supported by negative data on Japan's GDP, according to preliminary data which fell by 0.4% in Q3, and also due to geopolitical risks associated with the Ukrainian crisis, which has become one of the main themes of the summit G-20. Reduction potential is limited to an average level of gold production cost around 1100 dollars per barrel. We maintain a positive medium-term outlook for gold.
Oil price has corrected on Friday amid fixing positions, a weakening dollar and speculation on the possible reduction of OPEC quotas at a meeting that will be held on November 27. Recently had become more often diplomatic visits of participating countries, which reflects the desire to achieve consensus on a possible reduction of quotas to maintain oil prices. Data on decrease of Japanese GDP by 0.4% in the 3rd quarter worsened the mood of traders. Demand for oil in Asia and Europe continues to decline amid growing supply, leading to a further decline in prices. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for oil and recommend holding short positions.