17.12.2014 - Falling of US indexes may continue
US stock indexes continued to fall yesterday amid expectations of today's statements and forecasts of the US Federal Reserve (19:00 GMT), as well as in connection with the weak data on the housing market in the country. Thus, the number of housing starts dropped to 1.03 million which is 0.02 million less than the forecast, and the number of permits for the construction of new homes fell in November by 0.05 million to 1.04 million. Today, we are forecasting an increase in volatility after the Fed statementon monetary policy. The course of trading may also be affected by the data on the consumer price index and the balance of payments in the United States (13:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
European stocks yesterday showed strong growth against the background of correction after 6 days of decline. The reason for the improvement in investor sentiment became technical factors, as well as the positive statistics from the Eurozone, where the manufacturing and service PMI rose by 0.7 and 0.8, to 50.8 and 51.9 respectively. Consumer inflation in the UK in November slowed to 1.0%, compared to 1.2% in October. Today, statistics on the labor market in the UK has pleased investors. So the unemployment rate remained 6.0%, but the number of unemployed fell by 26.9 thousand, compared with an expected decline of 19.8 thousand. Wages in October rose by 1.4%, which is 0.1% better than analysts' expectations. The consumer price index in the euro area remained at 0.3%. Markets await the Fed statement tomorrow and we expect the growth of volatility. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region do not show a unified dynamics on expectations of the US Federal Reserve statement on monetary policy. It should be noted the negative impact of yesterday's data on manufacturing activity in China, which began to decline in December. The Japanese market is supported by the weakening of the yen and this positive trade balance of the country, the lack of which fell in November to 0.93 trillion, against 0.99 trillion earlier. The index of leading economic indicators in Australia in October fell by 0.1% against a 0.1% increase in September. We maintain our medium term negative outlook and keep medium term negative outlook.