18.01.2016 - Markets are waiting for tomorrow's statistics from China
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro corrected downwards after strong growth caused by weak data on retail sales and industrial production in the United States. Thus, retail sales in December fell by 0.1%, in line with analysts' forecasts, and for the year, an increase was 2.1%, against 3.9% in 2014. Industrial production volume fell by 0.4%, against an expected decline of 0.2%. It is worth noting that the index fell for the third month in a row. Deterioration of statistics from the US has a negative impact on investors' expectations about the pace of the Fed raising interest rates. Today, we are likely to see a consolidation of prices. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continued to decline amid continuing speculation about the negative impact of a possible exit of Great Britain from the European Union after a referendum, which could take place in 2016-2017. The prices for housing in the UK in January rose by 0.5%, against a decline of 1.1% in December. Our medium-term outlook remains negative. We expect a continuation of the negative dynamics in the medium term, but in the near future likely to see a correction.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen today is reduced on background of the US dollar weakening at the end of last week amid weak statistics on retail sales and industrial production. Today was published statistics on industrial production in Japan, which fell in November by 0.9%, vs. expected 1.4%. Tomorrow a strong impact on the dynamics of trading will have news of China's GDP growth and industrial production of the country, the deterioration of which may lead to an increase in the yen. Our medium-term outlook for the yen remains negative.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar corrected upwards today after a sharp fall caused by the decline in oil prices after the lifting of sanctions against Iran, which has led to a decline in oil prices. It should be noted that new car sales on the domestic market in Australia fell in January by 0.5%, against growth of 1.3% in December. Tomorrow a strong influence on the course of trading will have news on the GDP and industrial production in China. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we are waiting for further decline.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar is rising after the Australian currency due to technical factors. Tomorrow we expect to see strong movements in price due to the publication of a large block of important macroeconomic data from China, which is a key trading partner. The current correction is likely to be short-term and negative trend according to our forecast will continue in the near future. Our medium-term outlook is negative.