18.01.2016 - Sanctions against Iran were canceled
The price of gold rose late last week on a weaker US dollar and reduced the likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates in March. The reason for such market expectations became weak stats on US retail sales, which fell by 0.1% in December and for the year grew by only 2.1% compared to 3.9% in 2016. At the same time, industrial production in the US fell by 0.4%, which is two times worse than the forecast. The fall in industrial production was recorded for the third month in a row. Gold demand in China remains high due to the holiday season, which ends in early February. We expect gold to fall in the medium term, despite the possible increase in the near future.
The price of futures on Light Sweet crude oil continued to fall against the background of the decision on the lifting of sanctions against Iran, which had been introduced five years ago. Within a few weeks the country will increase oil exports by 500 thousand barrels per day, and after 3 months by 1 million barrels a day. The event was expected and we can see a small correction, but in the medium term, oil will continue to fall amid growing imbalance of supply and demand of oil, as well as concerns over a slowdown in global GDP growth. Tomorrow is expected to maintain a high level of volatility after the publication of data on the growth of GDP and industrial production in China.