18.02.2016 - Oil is likely to resume its fall after recent gains

The price of gold has stabilized around the level of 1200 dollars per troy ounce in anticipation of the publication of statistics on inflation in the US, which will be held tomorrow. It should be noted that the uncertainty on the markets keeps the price from falling further. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the news on the number of initial unemployment claims in the US (13:30 GMT). In case of renewed negative dynamics on the stock and commodity markets, the demand for protective assets may rise again. We forecast a drop in the medium term against the backdrop of the expected tightening of monetary policy by the Fed and the US dollar strengthening.

Price of futures of Light Sweet crude oil rose yesterday on the background of the meeting between the chairman of OPEC with oil ministers of Iran, Iraq and Venezuela in Tehran at which Iran's representative expressed support for the decision to freeze oil production volumes of several major manufacturers, but did not note the possibility of such a move by Iran. It is worth noting that the volume of Saudi Arabia's production level is high at 10.23 million barrels per day, and Russia in January reached a maximum volume of production in the post-Soviet period - 10.88 million barrels per day. We expect the resumption of the negative dynamics of oil due to continued growth in supply from Iran. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.

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