18.02.2016 - The price increase supports optimism on the markets
US stock indexes showed growth against the backdrop of rising oil prices after on the market appeared speculation about a possible Iran and Iraq's accession to the agreement on the freezing of current oil production levels. According to our forecasts such decision by Iran in the coming months is unlikely. At the same time was published weak stats on the new homes starts in the US, whose number was 1.10 million vs. expected 1.16 million in January, due to bad weather conditions. Industrial output rose by 0.9% in January, which is three times better than expected. Tomorrow will be published important statistics on inflation in the country, which will affect investors' expectations regarding the Fed's decision on interest rates. We forecast a drop in US markets in the coming months.
Major stock indexes in Europe, except the UK’s, show a positive trend. Investors are waiting for the completion of negotiations on an agreement between the EU and the UK. If they can reach an agreement, a referendum on the country's membership in the European Union can be held in June. Support for the market today is the general improvement in investor sentiment in the world and the rise in oil prices. Today has been published statistics on the euro area balance of payments surplus, which totaled 25.5 billion euros vs. expected 22.3 billion euros. Tomorrow the dynamics of trading will depend on the news on US inflation. Our medium-term outlook for European markets remains positive, despite the possibility of the resumption of the fall in the near future.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed gains today against the background of the positive influence from the United States. Today, Japan has published statistics on the country's trade surplus, which in January was 0.12 trillion yen against the forecast of 0.06 trillion yen. Despite this, exports from the country decreased by 12.9% after falling 8.0% in December. It should be noted the index of consumer prices in China of 1.8% in January against the backdrop of rising food prices before the celebration of the New Year according to the lunar calendar. Unemployment in Australia rose unexpectedly by 0.2% to 6.0%, which worsened investors' expectations. We expect an increased level of volatility in the near future, and do not exclude the rebound of prices.