18.03.2016 - Volatility on the markets has decreased and the probability of correction increased
US stocks yesterday showed a slight increase, which was due to rising prices of energy sector shares in connection with the growth of crude oil. At the same time it is worth noting the positive statistics on the manufacturing PMI of Philadelphia, which in March rose to 12.4, against the forecast of -1.4 and the previous value of -2.4. Today, the mood of traders will affect the news on the index of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan (14:00 GMT), as well as statements by the Fed, which may clarify the regulator's intentions regarding monetary policy. According to our forecasts, the probability of price correction in the near future has increased significantly and we expect a shift of the current positive trend to the negative in the near future.
European stocks showed modest growth today amid uncertainty on global stock markets. Thus, support for the stock indexes is rising oil prices and stabilization on the Chinese exchanges. In addition, support for the bulls in the medium term will be the program of quantitative easing in the Eurozone. It is worth noting that one of the main risks for the stock markets in the region remains a possible exit of the UK from the EU and closer to a referendum on the issue, which will be held on June 23, we will see increased volatility on the markets. On Monday, the course of trading will affect the data on the index of consumer confidence the euro area and the balance of production orders in the UK. At the moment, there is a possibility of a downward correction on the stock markets in the region, but we maintain a positive medium-term outlook for the European markets.
Stock markets Asia-Pacific region showed a slight increase against the background of moderate optimism in the world, due to rising oil prices. Strengthening of the yuan, as well as the stabilization of the situation on the Chinese stock markets leads to increased appetite for risky assets. The Japanese market is still under the pressure from the strengthening of the yen against the US dollar, which makes the country's exports more expensive. According to our forecasts, this dynamic may change in the near future and we will see strong growth of the Japanese indexes. Australian assets are getting more expensive following the increase in commodities’ prices. Our medium-term outlook for the region's markets remains positive, but risks remain elevated.