18.04.2016 - The fall in oil prices has led to a decrease in the Australian dollar
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro remained virtually unchanged after a slight increase on Friday. The reason for the growth of the European currency was the fall of the US dollar against the background of weak statistics on industrial production in the US, which fell in March by 0.6%, which was 0.5% less than the forecast. At the same time, the index of US consumer confidence from the University of Michigan fell to 89.7 in April, against the forecast of 91.9. Today, the course of trading may affect the speech of the president of Federal Reserve Bank of New York William Dudley (12:30 GMT), and tomorrow will be published important statistics on the housing market in the US. Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative on the background of the monetary policy divergence in the US and the Eurozone.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound dropped today amid falling oil prices, as well as in connection with the general pessimistic mood of investors towards the British currency, which is associated with negative expectations regarding a referendum on Britain's membership in the European Union that will be held in June. Among the important macroeconomic data this week should pay attention to the data on the labor market in the UK, which will be published on Wednesday. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but the current consolidation is likely to continue in the near future.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen showed an increase at the beginning of the week against the backdrop of a sharp drop in oil prices after the meeting of major oil producers in the Qatari capital, has not brought results. This fact has led to increased demand for defensive assets, but such a scenario was expected. On Wednesday will be published statistics on the trade balance of the country, but in the coming days, a greater impact on the course of trading will have the movement of oil prices and stock markets in the world, the fall of which will lead to an increased interest in defensive assets such as the yen.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed a sharp drop at the beginning of the trading session due to the decline in oil prices after a useless meeting of major oil producers in Doha. Without the participation of Iran, which continues to increase production volumes, the deal to freeze the volumes of oil production does not make sense. It is worth noting that the Australian dollar quotes recovered some previously lost positions after the publication of statistics on car sales on the domestic market, which grew by 2.2% in March. Our medium-term outlook for the Australian dollar remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar showed a strong increase in volatility on the background of the impact of the price fall of the Australian dollar and oil prices. On the other hand, the growth of the consumer price index in New Zealand accelerated to 0.4% in Q1 compared to the same period last year. We recall that in the 4th quarter of 2015, the figure was only 0.1%. Low inflation allows the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut interest rates in order to support economic growth. Our medium-term outlook for the New Zealand currency remains negative.