18.05.2015 - Industrial production in the US fell for the fifth month in a row
Currency trading and the euro. The price growth in the end of the last week amid a weakening US dollar, which fell after the publication of statistics on the volume of industrial production, which fell by 0.3% in April, against expected growth of 0.1%. Fall indicator was registered the fifth consecutive month. Statistics on consumer confidence in the United States reported a decline in May to 88.6, vs. expected 95.8. Today, the dynamics will depend on the speech of the Chicago Fed President Charles Evans (06:00 GMT) and monthly report of the Central Bank of Germany (10:00 GMT). Investors' attention will remain focused on the negotiation of Greece and creditors to restructure debt. Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative, but in the near future the price may rise to 1.15.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound could not continue to grow in spite of the weakening US dollar. After strong growth and a consolidation of prices near the mark 1.58, quotes the British currency are gradually reduced on the background of fixed positions. Today have been published data showing that in May, the index of housing prices in the UK fell by 0.1%, against an increase of 1.6% in the previous period. Rising volatility is forecasted tomorrow after the publication of important statistics on inflation in the country. The growth index will increase the likelihood of higher interest rates the Bank of England this year and will lead to an increase in the US dollar. Our medium-term outlook is negative.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen against the US dollar fell against the background of conflicting statistics today. Thus, the volume of domestic orders for engineering products in Japan in March rose by 2.9%, which is 1.2% better than expected, but the volume of industrial production in the country fell in March by 0.8%, against an expected decline of 0.3 %. The demand for defensive assets is currently low, but the situation may change in the event of lack of progress in negotiations on debt restructuring of Greece. Our medium-term outlook for the Japanese currency remains negative.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar on Friday corrected down to the important level of 0.80 against the weakening US currency. Statistics on the sales of new cars in the country, the volume of which fell in April by 1.5% has not much impact on the course of trading. The increase in investor activity is expected after tomorrow release minutes of the previous meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia where it was decided to decrease the interest rate by 0.25% to 2.00%. Support for the Australian currency is the recent rise in commodity prices. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the Australian dollar and wait for the signal to sell.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continued to fall after on Sunday was published the news of the introduction of a new tax on real estate investments to curb the growth in house prices in Auckland. It is worth noting that analysts have become more confident in the possibility of lowering the interest rates of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to support demand in the country. Today will be published data on producer price index in the country (22:45 GMT). We expect a continuation of the downward movement of prices in the near future.