18.05.2016 - Data on US crude oil inventories will lead to an increase in volatility
The price of gold continued to consolidate near the important level of 1280 dollars per troy ounce, despite the publication of important statistics on consumer price index in the US, which in April unexpectedly rose by 0.4% compared with the previous month, which was by 0.1% more than the forecast of analysts. Inflation in the United States reinforces the need to increase confidence in the Fed's interest rates this year, which is negative for gold. Today, the focus will be on the publication of the previous Fed meeting minutes (18:00 GMT). In case of decrease on the stock markets, gold growth will accelerate. Despite this, we expect the fall in gold prices in the medium term.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil continued growth on the background of supply disruptions from Nigeria and Libya, as well as the decline in oil production in Canada by about 1 million barrels per day due to forest fires in Alberta, where are situated the oil sands. According to our estimates, these factors are temporary, and after the resumption of the supply of these regions, oil drop will resume, especially given the need for correction after the strong growth over the previous months. Today is forecasted the rise in activity after the publication of data on stocks of oil and petroleum products in the US (14:30 GMT). We expect a downward correction of prices in the coming weeks, but in the second half of the year quotations growth will resume.