18.05.2016 - Minutes of the Fed meeting will be in the spotlight
US stocks fell yesterday and continued consolidation after the completion of which we expect a strong movement. It should be noted that the data on the growth of the consumer price index in the US by 0.4% in April, against the forecast of 0.3% increase the likelihood of earlier Fed raising interest rates, which will be negatively displayed on the stock markets. Among the positive news should also highlight the increase in the number of housing starts in the United States to 1.17 million in April from 1.10 million in March, as well as the increase in the volume of industrial production by 0.7% after falling by 0.9% in March. Today may increase the volatility after the publication of the previous Fed meeting minutes (18:00 GMT). We forecast a decline in US stock markets after the current consolidation.
Major European stock markets today are near yesterday's closing levels. Investors do not rush to build up positions before the publication of the previous Fed meeting minutes. It should be noted that the index of consumer prices in the euro area was -0.2%, compared with the same period last year, which may lead to additional stimulus measures from the ECB. In addition, today will be released statistics on the labor market in the UK, where the unemployment rate remained at 5.1%, the number of unemployed decreased by 2.4 thousand, while the average wage index for 3 months accelerated growth to 2.0%, vs. expected 1, 7%. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the minutes of the previous meeting of the ECB. Drop on the European markets is possible in case of the correction in oil prices and the fall in the US stock markets. Despite this, our medium-term outlook remains positive.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region declined today after the fall of the US stock markets. In Japan, has been published preliminary statistics on the growth of GDP that in the 1st quarter unexpectedly has made 0.4% vs. expected 0.1%. The reason for this result was the increase in consumer and government spending, as well as increased demand for Japanese exports. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the news on the volume of domestic orders for engineering products in Japan and labor market data in Australia. Our medium-term outlook remains positive, but the probability of correction on the markets has recently increased.