18.06.2015 - Forecasts of the Federal Reserve has led to the fall of the dollar
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro yesterday showed strong growth of volatility against the publication of the Fed's statement on monetary policy. Thus, 15 of the 17 members of the Federal Open Market expect the increase of interest rates in 2015. At the same time, Janet Yellen noted that the prices of energy and imported goods have stabilized. Support for the euro was the decline in US economic growth forecasts, despite the gradual improvement on the labor market in the United States. Thus, according to the regulator's expectations GDP growth in 2015 will be 1.8% -2.0%. In the euro zone, was reported on the consumer price index, which in May was 0.3%. Today will be held a meeting of Eurozone finance ministers, which will continue negotiations on the reforms Greece needed to restructure the country's debt. Today, the course of trading will also be affected by the data on the consumer price index, the labor market and the US balance of payments (08:30 GMT). Despite the deterioration in the growth outlook for the US economy, the impact of quantitative easing in Eurozone and an expected increase in interest rates of the Fed will lead to the fall of the euro in the medium term.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound reached target levels of 1.57 and 1.58, and continued to rise on the weakening of the US dollar after the Fed downgraded growth in the world's largest economy, which weakened the US dollar. The unemployment rate in the UK was 5.5%, in line with expectations, but the support for the pound was the increase in wages of 2.7%, which is 0.2% better than analysts' expectations. Today, the course of trading will be affected by data on retail sales in the UK (08:30 GMT), which traditionally has a strong influence on the course of trading. We expect further growth of the pound in the near future, but maintain a medium-term negative outlook.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen showed a rise in volatility after the publication of the application and the Fed's economic forecasts. Federal Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve has left interest rates unchanged, but most of its members expect the raise of interest rates before the end of this year. Demand for the yen as a defensive asset, is supported by uncertainty about negotiations between Greece and creditors. Tomorrow will be published important statistics on the index of business activity in Japan, as well as the statement of the Bank of Japan on monetary policy. Despite the current weakening of the US dollar, we expect a further decrease in quotations of the Japanese yen in the medium term against the backdrop of a soft monetary policy of conservation of the Bank of Japan.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar yesterday showed a decline, but to compensate losses amid falling dollar after the news on the weaker than expected growth of the US economy. Negative for the Australian currency has become weak data on GDP growth in New Zealand, which is one of Australia's major trading partners. The growth of quotations in the near future is limited and we expect the resumption of the downward movement of prices in the near future and maintain the medium-term negative outlook due to the expectation of further easing of monetary policy in Australia.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar showed a strong increase in volatility amid the weakening US dollar, which was offset by weak data on GDP growth in New Zealand, which in Q1 totaled 0.2% vs. expected 0.6%. This fact reinforces the likelihood of a further reduction in interest rates by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and therefore the likelihood of reaching the target level of 0.66 has grown substantially. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.