18.06.2015 - Markets continue to monitor the Greek crisis

The US stock market yesterday showed moderate growth despite the worsening outlook for US economic growth in 2015 to 1.8% -2.0%. At the same time the Fed has left interest rates unchanged, but 15 of the 17 members of the Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve still expect the raise of interest rates before the end of 2015. According to forecasts of the Federal Reserve, the situation on the labor market in the country will continue to gradually improve but at a slower pace than last year. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the statistics on the consumer price index, the index of leading economic indicators and the number of initial unemployment claims in the US (12:30 GMT). In addition, investors continue to monitor negotiations between Greece and its creditors. In case of failure, Greece may default. Our medium-term outlook for the US stock indexes remains positive.

Major stock indexes in Europe fell yesterday due to investors' concerns about the failure of the talks between Greece and creditors in Luxembourg. In case of failure, the country will default and will probably leave the Eurozone and the European Union. The positive data on the growth of wages in the UK by 2.7% vs. expected 2.5%, failed to lead to an increase in the UK market. Unemployment in the country has remained at 5.5%. The consumer price index in the euro area remained at 0.3%. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the publication of the Economic Bulletin of the ECB (08:00 GMT), and retail sales in the UK (08:30 GMT). We expect increased volatility due to the negotiations on the reform of Greece and maintain a positive medium-term outlook for the European markets.

Stock indexes in the Asia-Pacific region ended the trading session near the previous close levels. The deterioration of the US economic growth forecasts from did not add optimism to investors. Shanghai stock market has dropped today. Negative for Chinese investors has become the news on reduction of growth in foreign direct investment in May to 10.1%, against 10.4% in April. Tomorrow the course of trading will be affected by data on the index of business activity in Japan, as well as the statement of the Bank of Japan. Investors will continue to monitor the development of the Greek crisis. Our medium-term outlook for the stock markets in the region remains positive.

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