18.07.2016 - New Zealand's dollar fell after the inflation data
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro fell on Friday against the US dollar after published statistics on retail sales in the US, which rose by 0.6% in June against the forecast of 0.1%. In addition, the volume of industrial production increased by 0.6%, which is 3 times more than the expected rate and the consumer price index rose 0.2% last month. An additional incentive at the end of the week was an attempted coup in Turkey, which increased demand for the dollar. Tomorrow will be published important statistics on the housing market in the US. Today, the euro may correct upwards after the recent decline, but the medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price drop of the British pound resumed on Friday, amid a stronger US dollar. In addition, quotes continue to be under the pressure of negative expectations regarding the impact of the UK’s exit from the EU. Today has been published statistics on the housing price index, which fell by 0.9% in July, which is the consequence of a referendum on Britain's membership in the EU and this dynamics is likely to continue, according to our estimates. Tomorrow will be published important statistics on inflation and on Wednesday we should pay special attention to the data on the labor market in the country. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen after a strengthening in the last trading day last week, continued to consolidate and in the near future may continue to decline against the dollar on expectations of monetary policy easing in Japan, as well as the strong macroeconomic indicators in the US. Today in Japan is the day off, and investors' activity will be low. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar has stabilized after the recent fall caused by the appreciation of the US dollar, as well as the fixation of long positions after strong growth in previous days. Tomorrow, on the dynamics of trading will affect publication of the minutes of the previous meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Strong statistics from the US will continue to support the dollar, which, together with the negative dynamics of commodity markets will lead to a decrease in quotations of Australian currency in the near future and medium term.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to fall after was published statistics on the consumer price index, which in the second quarter grew by 0.4% vs. expected 0.5%. Low inflation is a precondition for the reduction of interest rates by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. We expect a continuation of the negative dynamics of prices in the near future on the background of weak data in New Zealand and the strong macroeconomic indicators in the US.