18.08.2016 - Oil inventories in the US has declined

The price of gold rose after the publication of the minutes of previous Fed meeting that has led to a drop in the US dollar and reduction of the likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates in September. This fact explains by the division of opinion of members of the Federal Open Market Committee regarding the issue of the need to tighten monetary policy at the next meeting. Demand for gold has traditionally increases in the second half against the background of the festive season in China and India, leading to increased demand for jewelry. In addition, the interest in defensive assets will increase in case of decrease on the stock markets, the probability of which is high. Our medium-term outlook is positive with the potential of reaching 1400 dollars per troy ounce in the coming months.

The price of Light Sweet crude oil continued growth on the background of speculative demand caused by the expectations of the consensus regarding the freezing or reduction in oil production of major producers among which the OPEC countries and Russia. Yesterday in the US was published statistics on oil inventories, which fell by 2.5 million barrels against the forecast of growth by 0.3 million barrels. The volume of oil production in Saudi Arabia increased to 10.67 million barrels in July and may continue to grow, together with an increase in production in Iran and other countries that will lead to saving of the oversupply of oil on the market. After strong growth in prices in August, we expect to see the resumption of the negative dynamics of prices in the near future and maintain the medium-term negative outlook.

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