18.08.2016 - The probability of the beginning of a strong correction on the stock markets is high
American stock indexes showed growth against the background of rising oil prices after the release of the statistics, according to which the US crude oil inventories fell by 2.5 million barrels. It should be noted that members of the US Federal Open Market Committee have different visions on the assessments of the situation in the economy. As a result of rising interest rates in September, is not excluded, but the probability is low. Today, little impact on the course of trading will have data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of Philadelphia (12:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative and the probability of price decline in the near future has increased significantly.
European stock indexes show moderate increase today after yesterday, the US market showed growth. It is worth noting that the UK market was supported by news on the reduction in the number of unemployed in the country by 8.6 thousand, against the forecast of growth by 5.2 thousand. Today the volatility may increase amid the publication of statistics on the consumer price index in the euro area (09:00 GMT), retail sales in the UK (08:30 GMT) and the minutes of the previous meeting of the European Central Bank (11:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect the shift of local upward trend to negative.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region today, only slightly changed despite the important news. Thus, Japan's trade surplus totaled 0.32 trillion yen, but at the same time, for the period from January to July, exports declined by 14%, against an expected decline of 13%. The worsening economic situation will put pressure on the stock market together with the current strengthening of the yen. In Australia, today were published unemployment figures that fell by 0.1% to 5.7%, while employment grew by 26.2 thousand vs. expected 10.2 thousand. Tomorrow, little impact on investors' sentiment will have data on the index of business activity in Japan. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook and look forward to the fall in the near future.