18.08.2016 - The US dollar continued its decline
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed growth against the US dollar after were published minutes of the last meeting of the Fed on monetary policy according to which the Federal Open Market Committee members were divided on the question about the need to raise interest rates in the near future. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the publication of the previous ECB meeting minutes (11:30 GMT), as well as data on inflation in the Eurozone (09:00 GMT). We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the euro and in the near future decline in prices is likely to resume.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound has increased due to the weakening US dollar and strong data on the labor market in the UK, where the number of unemployed decreased by 8.6 thousand in July and the unemployment rate has remained at around 4.9%. Today, the dynamics of trading will depend on the publication of important statistics on retail sales in the UK (08:30 GMT). The growth of the British currency is limited due to the negative effects of the country's future exit from the EU and on this background, we expect price decline in the medium term with potential targets at 1.2600 and 1.2200.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen rose in response to falling US dollar after the publication minutes of the previous Fed meeting on the monetary policy, as well as strong data on Japan's trade balance surplus which totaled 0.32 trillion yen against the forecast of 0.14 trillion yen. Despite this, export and import in the country continued to decline, indicating the deterioration in the prospects for economic growth. An additional incentive for a price increase may be the rise in investor interest in defensive assets in connection with the likely fall on equity markets in the near future. Our medium-term outlook remains negative for the yen, but we can see continued growth in the near future.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar resumed its growth and compensated for previous losses after was released the report on the labor market in the country, according to which the unemployment rate fell by 0.1% to 5.7%, while employment grew by 26.2 thousand in July against the forecast of growth by 10,2 thousand. Support for the national currency of Australia also remains the rise in oil prices. Our medium-term outlook remains negative on the background of the expected continued easing of monetary policy of the country, as well as the likely fall in of commodity prices in the near future.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar was unable to continue to decline and change the trend, and as the result showed a sharp upward momentum. Support for prices is the decline of the US dollar and the recent publication of strong data on the labor market in New Zealand. It is worth noting that the optimism was also associated with an increase in the Australian dollar, which has traditionally had a strong influence on the local currency of New Zealand. Our medium-term outlook remains negative