18.09.2015 - The Fed has not raised interest rates
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continued to rise after yesterday's Fed statement on the preservation of parameters of monetary policy. Despite this, 13 of the 17 leaders at the Federal Reserve expect the raise in interest rates before the end of the year. The reasons for the preservation of interest rates has become weak and inflation concerns regarding the negative impact of slowing growth in China and the developing countries on the US economy. Today, little impact on the course of trading will have a balance of payments data for the euro area (08:00 GMT) and the index of leading US economic indicators in August (14:00 GMT). After the completion of the current upward momentum decline of the euro is likely to resume in connection with the program of quantitative easing in the Eurozone and expectations of tighter monetary policy in the US.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound rose yesterday after the Fed statement on monetary policy as a result of which the dollar has weakened. In addition it is worth noting the positive data on retail sales, which in the UK rose by 0.2% in August, in line with expectations, but it was 0.2% better than the previous figure. Today, the dynamics of trading can be influenced by the quarterly report of the Bank of England (11:00 GMT). We expect the price correction and fixation of positions today in connection with the end of the week and maintain the medium-term negative outlook.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen rose against the weakening US dollar in relation to the saving parameters of the monetary policy of the US regulator unchanged. This fact has raised interest in risky assets, which has led to sales of the yen is considered a defensive asset. Thus, the strengthening of the Japanese currency was limited. The minutes of the previous meeting of the Bank of Japan stressed on the need to monitor the situation in China and the dynamics of oil prices, which affects inflation. On Monday, in Japan will be a day off. We maintain a negative outlook on the Japanese yen.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed a strong increase in volatility after the Fed kept interest rates at 0-0.25%. Despite the strong growth, the quotes returned to the previous levels and continued moderate increase. The head of the RBA noted on the low risk of inflation and the need for further reduce of the Australian dollar to sustain economic growth in the country. In the near future we will see a high probability of resumption of the downward movement after the end of the current correction. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar showed a strong price movement and continued upward movement. The reason for such dynamics was the fall of the US dollar. Despite this, the potential for growth is limited by the pressure of negative statistics on the trade balance of the country and the slowdown of GDP growth. Our medium-term view remains negative.