18.11.2014 - China's construction sector again showed weak data
The US stock market continues to move around the level of historical highs. News about the recession in Japan were negatively perceived by investors who fear other than that the negative impact of the crisis in the construction sector in China and the weak economic performance in the EU. Investors were disappointed with the data on reduction of the volume of industrial production in the US by 0.1% in October, against the expected growth of 0.2%. Today we should pay attention to the statistics on producer price index (13:30 GMT) and the index of business activity in the housing market in the US (15:00 GMT). Investors will not rush with action before the publication of the minutes of the Fed meeting on Wednesday, and the statistics on the housing market. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the US market.
Major European markets showed moderately positive momentum after the statements of the ECB, who has called the European institutions for approval of short-term commitments to structural reforms. In addition, Mr. Draghi said that expect a recovery in the Eurozone at a moderate pace in 2015 and 2016. News on reduction of Japan's GDP in the third quarter by 0.4%, and the reduction of industrial production in the US by 0.1% in October worsened investor sentiment. Today the course of trading may be affected by data on the index of business sentiment in Germany and the Eurozone (10:00 GMT). We expect low volatility and maintain a medium-term negative outlook.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region today showed mixed trends. The Chinese market was disappointed by the data on the construction sector, where prices fell by 0.8% in October. We recall that the crisis in the construction of China is a key risk for the economy of the region and the world in general. The Japanese market has shown strong growth due to expectations that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will postpone raising the sales tax, which was scheduled for October 2015 and will announce new elections. The fall of the yen supported exporters in the country. We forecast a drop in stock market indexes in the region except Japan, which according to our estimates will continue to grow in the medium term.