18.11.2015 - Markets are waiting for release of the Fed meeting minutes
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continues to decline after the publication of statistics on inflation in the US, according to which the consumer price index rose in October by 0.2% compared to September, in line with expectations of the market. This fact increases the probability of the Fed raising interest rates at the next meeting of the American regulator. In addition, the index of business confidence in the Eurozone fell in November to 28.3, which is less than the forecast of 35.2. Today, mood of traders will affect the news on the housing market in the US (1330 GMT) and the publication of the minutes of the previous meeting of the Fed (19:00 GMT). We recommend keeping short positions on the euro and maintain the medium-term negative outlook.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continues to consolidate after a report on inflation in the country, which pointed to the growth of core consumer price index in the UK to 1.1% in October, which is 0.1% better than analysts' expectations. Today, the dynamics will depend on external factors, and we do not exclude a strong price movements. At the same time, tomorrow will be published statistics on retail sales and the balance of production orders in the country. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we recommend holding short positions.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen shows low volatility due to the expectation of today's publication of important statistics on the housing market in the US (13:30 GMT), and the publication of minutes of the previous meeting of the Federal Reserve (19:00 GMT), after which a drop in the yen accelerated. Today, investors' activity will increase. The difference in monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, which may continue to soften and the Fed, which in December may tighten, are leading to a further decline of the yen in the medium term and our outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed increased activity today after the release of the report on the index of leading economic indicators in the country in September, which totaled -0.1% vs. expected -0.4% in August. It is worth noting that the wage index in the third quarter increased by 0.6% and for the year wages grew by 2.3%. The growth of this indicator supports the Australian currency, but low commodity prices and the negative trends in the Chinese economy continues to put pressure on the Australian dollar quotations and this negative trend will continue according to our forecasts in the medium term.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to consolidate near the levels of the previous day due to the lack of incentives for the movement. It is worth noting that today, there is a possibility of strong price movements in connection with the release of important news from the US. In addition, the dynamics of trading can be affected by the statistics on the Producer Price Index (21:45 GMT). We expect falling New Zealand dollar in the medium term and recommend holding short positions.