19.01.2015 - The collapse of the Chinese market has supported the demand for yen
The price of euro continues to decline after the decision by the Swiss National Bank to abandon the minimum rate for the national currency against the euro at 1.20. This step of regulator led to a reduction of the euro in connection with sales of euros for the purchase of the Swiss franc, as well as reducing the demand for the euro itself from the Swiss regulator. At the same time, investors expect the ECB's decision on monetary policy, which will be published on January 22. According to our forecasts, Mario Draghi will announce on the beginning of large-scale asset purchasing program that will lead to a further decline of the euro. It is worth noting that this event has already been priced in euros. Today, investors' activity will be reduced in connection with the celebration of Martin Luther King in the United States. The course of trading will be affected by the data on the balance of payments of the Eurozone (09:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
The price of the British pound continues to decline under the pressure of a sharp decline in the euro quotations. On the one hand there is currently no reason for the growth of the pound, but on the other hand, on the market there are no drivers for the further drop in prices below the psychologically important level of 1.50. Today the positive have become data on the growth of the index of house prices by 1.4% in January, against a decline by 2.2% in December. We maintain our negative view on the British pound and expect a further fall in prices today.
The Japanese yen strengthened today against the background of the next increase in demand for defensive assets as a result of stopping the operations of three largest brokerage companies in China, which has led to the collapse on the stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. At the same time, the volume of industrial production in Japan fell by 0.5% in November, and the consumer confidence index rose in December to 38.8, which is 0.2 more than analysts' forecasts. Strengthening of the dollar and the loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan continues to put pressure on the quotes of the yen, but the growth in demand for defensive assets continues to strengthen the Japanese currency. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the yen, but assume growth in the coming weeks.
The price of the Australian Dollar continued to consolidate near previous levels against the background of the lack of strong drivers for the price movement. New car sales on the domestic market in Australia rose in December by 3.0%, but this fact has not managed to improve investor sentiment. Tomorrow the course of trading will be influenced by a large block of macroeconomic data from China that today held investors from active operations on the market. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar.
The New Zealand dollar has stabilized after a decline in the last trading session of the week. Investors do not hurry with actions due to the expected publication of data on the index of business sentiment in New Zealand in the 4th quarter (21:00 GMT), as well as important statistics from China tomorrow. In addition, this week is worth paying attention to the statistics on the consumer price index in New Zealand, which can result in the acceleration of falling the price of the national currency. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the New Zealand dollar.