19.02.2015 - The US dollar weakened after the publication of minutes of the Fed meeting
The price of euro showed growth amid weakening US dollar after the publication of the minutes of the Fed meeting. In the protocols was indicated that a number of members of the Federal Open Market Committee said about the negative impact of premature rate hikes. At the same time Janet Yellen said that interest rates will not go up in the next two Fed meetings. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the balance of payments data in the Eurozone (09:00 GMT), minutes of the previous meeting of the ECB (12:30 GMT), statistics on the labor market in the US (15:00 GMT) and the index of consumer confidence in the euro area (15:00 GMT). We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the euro and note the negative effect of the Greek crisis.
The price of the British pound showed strong growth against the publication of statistics on the labor market in the country. Thus, the unemployment rate fell to 0.1% in December, to 5.7%, the average wage increased by 2.1%, which is 0.4% better than expected. At the same time, the number of unemployed in January fell by 38.6 thousand, against expected 25.2 thousand. Today the course of trading will be influenced by the data on the balance of production orders in the country (11:00 GMT). We expect further growth of quotations of the British pound in the near future, but note the negative impact of the problems in the Eurozone on the currency of the UK.
The price of the Japanese yen strengthened against the weakening of the US dollar after the publication of minutes of the previous meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which said they were not going to raise interest rates in the next two meetings. At the same time, the Japanese currency was supported by positive data on the country's trade deficit, which fell in January to 0.41 trillion yen, compared with an expected increase to 0.95 trillion yen. Tomorrow the course of trading will be affected by the data on the industry. Investors continue to monitor the Greek and Ukrainian crises that may increase the demand for defensive assets. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the Japanese yen.
The price of the Australian dollar continued to consolidate below 0.7840 due to the lack of drivers for the price movement. The slight strengthening of prices was due to the weakening of the US dollar after the publication of minutes of the previous meeting of the Federal Reserve, as well as in connection with the weak US data. Volatility in the near future will be low due to the New Year celebrations in China, which will continue until 24 February. Given the weak economic data in Australia, we maintain a medium-term negative outlook.
The price of the New Zealand dollar continues a gradual increase in the weakening US dollar. Rising prices of milk powder, which is a key export product for the country. It is worth noting that the producer price index in the 4th quarter decreased 0.1% vs. 0.3%. Price volatility in the near future will be low, and we expect a continuation of the gradual growth of the New Zealand currency in the near future.