19.02.2016 - Data on inflation in the US may greatly affect the course of trading

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continues gradual decline against the background of the fundamental factors. Thus, the main reason for the weakening of the European currency is the divergence in monetary policies of the Fed and the ECB. Earlier, the ECB announced its intention to revise the parameters of the current monetary policy at the next meeting in March. Today will be published important statistics on consumer price index (13:30 GMT) in the United States. Inflation will increase the likelihood of earlier Fed raising interest rates, and bring the euro down against the US dollar. Data on consumer confidence in the euro area in February will be published at 15:00 GMT. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect increased volatility in the near future.

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound showed growth against the backdrop of positive expectations regarding the negotiations between the EU and the UK. In case of reaching an agreement, a referendum on the country’s presence in the European Union could take place in June. In the near future this subject of speculation will keep the volatility of prices at a high level. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the news on retail sales in the UK (09:30 GMT) and the balance of production orders (11:00 GMT). We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the British pound.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continued to strengthen against the background of decline on the stock markets and falling oil prices. Recently, the yen was very sensitive to the situation on the stock and commodity markets, which leads to deterioration of the increased demand for the yen as a defensive asset. On Monday, we should pay attention to the data on business activity in the manufacturing sector of Japan. Our medium-term outlook remains negative for the yen.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar drops against the background of falling oil prices, as well as statements by a member of board of the Reserve Bank of Australia John Edwards, in which he said about expensive Australian dollar, which is a threat to the growth of the Australian economy. According to our forecasts, the fall of the Australian dollar will continue in the near future and medium term.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to consolidate in anticipation of new stimulus for the movement in one direction or another. We expect that today the dynamics of prices will depend on the movement of the US dollar after the release of US inflation statistics. In the medium term, on the market will renew speculation about reducing the RBNZ interest rates, which will be negatively displayed on the price of the New Zealand dollar.

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