19.02.2016 - Statistics on the consumer price index may greatly change investors’ sentiment
American stocks yesterday declined slightly after confident growth of the previous days. The pressure on investor’s sentiment had a fall in oil prices and weak quarterly reports of Wal-Mart. It should be noted that investors also fixed positions before today's publication of important statistics on consumer price index in the United States (13:30 GMT). Improving this indicator will increase the likelihood of earlier Fed raising interest rates, which will be displayed negatively on the stock market. Given the weak performance of the corporate reporting season and the lack of new drivers for growth, we expect the resumption of the negative dynamics on US stock markets.
Major European stock markets fell yesterday and today are consolidated near the previous close. The negative impact on investor sentiment was the publication of the OECD report on economic growth in the euro area for 2016 and 2017, which has been lowered to 1.4% and 1.7%, against 1.8% and 1.9% respectively. The focus of the market is on negotiations between the European Union and the United Kingdom regarding the saving of the country within the union. Support for the UK market today was the news on retail sales, which rose by 2.3% in January, which is 1.5% more than the forecast. We expect growth in the European stock markets in the medium term and in the near future will increase optimism in connection with the expected measures to stimulate the Eurozone’s economy.
Major stock indexes of the Asia-Pacific region showed a negative trend due to lower forecast of OECD on growth of the world economy in 2016 by 3.0% compared to the November’s forecast of 3.3%. The Japanese market is under the pressure of the rising yen due to increased demand for defensive assets. This fact is negatively displayed on the value of the shares of export-oriented companies. On Monday, we should pay attention to the statistics on the manufacturing PMI in Japan. We expect continued high levels of volatility on the market in the near future.