19.03.2015 - Oil inventories again showed strong growth
The price of gold has shown a sharp increase after the statement and publication of the US Federal Reserve forecasts for the US economy. Thus, despite the rejection of the statements regarding the "patience" with the Fed raising interest rates, which increases the chances of a faster raising of interest rates, the dollar fell. Investors were disappointed by the reduction of forecasts for inflation and interest rates of the Fed in the long run. A strong dollar has led to deterioration in the consumer price index and exports. The growth of the US equity markets continued to restrain the growth of quotations of gold, but reduced likelihood of raising interest the Fed rates in June will support the price of gold in the near future. We maintain our medium-term positive medium-term outlook for gold.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil yesterday updated the local minimum against the publication of statistics on the increase in crude oil inventories in the US by 9.6 million barrels, against an expected increase of 4.0 million barrels. An additional negative factor for oil remains investors' concerns about the deficit of capacities for storage of oil in the United States and China, which may lead to a sharp collapse in prices. In case of easing sanctions against Iran in connection with the negotiations on its nuclear program, oil prices will accelerate the fall. Reducing the number of drilling rigs in the United States indicates a probable decline in production at the end of the year, but at the moment we expect continued downward dynamics of oil prices in the medium term and recommend holding short positions.