19.04.2016 - News on the strike in Kuwait supported oil prices

The price of gold today showed growth against the background of increased demand, which is associated with both the uncertainty on the stock market, as well as the failure of the negotiations of major oil producers in Doha. As a result of an excess of oil on the market is maintained, and the competition for market share between the oil producers will increase. On the other hand the positive data from China, where accelerated production growth rate have a double effect. On the one hand, concerns related to the slowdown in the Chinese economy fell, but on the other hand, revenue growth in China will lead to increased consumption of gold. We expect the decline in gold prices in the medium term on expectations of the US monetary policy tightening, but a possible drop in the stock markets, will sustain the demand for gold as a defensive asset.

The price of futures on Light Sweet crude oil after a strong decline on the background of the failure of the Doha negotiations, resumed growth after the announcement of a strike at the oil rigs in Kuwait, and shutdowns of some oil pipelines in Yemen, South Sudan and Iraq. It is worth noting that the impact of a strike that may lead to a decrease in oil supplies from Kuwait by 1.0 million barrels is limited due to the possibility of involving other workers. According to our estimates, in the absence of prospects for reducing the oversupply of oil in the near future and growth in US inventories the oil prices will resume fall in the near future.

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