19.04.2016 - Oil prices recovery supported the commodity currencies
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continues to grow gradually against the US dollar in recent days. Yesterday in the US and the euro area has not been published important macroeconomic data, but today it is worth paying attention to the data on the balance of payments (08:00 GMT) and the index of business sentiment in the Eurozone (09:00 GMT). In addition, will be released the data on the housing market in the United States (12:30 GMT). Improving the economic situation in China, stimulates interest in riskier assets that will support the US dollar. According to our estimates, the Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy, which will have a negative impact on the price of the euro in the medium term and its growth potential in the near future is limited.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound showed growth without a specific reason for this movement. The focus of investors this week will be on the data on the labor market, which will be published on Wednesday. It should be noted that the potential growth of the British currency is limited due to the pressure of speculation about the country's possible exit from the European Union after the referendum on 23 June. According to our estimates, the decline resumed in the near future and potential targets will be 1.4050 and 1.3840. Our medium-term outlook also remains negative.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the yen after rising in early trading week reached local maximum, but was unable to continue this trend. The reason for strengthening of the national currency of Japan was the decline in oil prices after the meeting of the major manufacturers in Doha. The potential for further strengthening of the yen is limited due to the reduction of concerns on slowing global economic growth and the intention of the Bank of Japan to fight against speculation, which has led to an increase in the price of the yen. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but to open new positions we need to wait for a signal.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar has updated highs for more than 9 months against the background of the oil price recovery after the fruitless meeting the major manufacturers in the Qatari capital. Today in Australia, were published the minutes of the previous RBA meeting which has been an increase in the prices of oil and iron ore, the negative impact of the high Australian dollar and the possibility of lowering interest rates against the background of low inflation in the country. Overall, the prospects for the Australian dollar have improved significantly recently, but in the short term we are likely to see the resumption of a negative price dynamics.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. Price of the New Zealand dollar rose after the Australian currency, as well as on the background of recovery in commodity prices. Increasing consumer price index in New Zealand to 0.4% per year in the 1st quarter, which is 0.3% better than the previous figure, decreases the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the near future, but this scenario is not excluded due to the fact that the indicator is well below the target level of 2.0%. The increase in prices for dairy products also supports the New Zealand currency, but in the near future we can see the price decline of the New Zealand dollar.