19.06.2015 - Talks on the Greek crisis have failed
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro fell yesterday after the previous increase, which was caused by the lack of results in the negotiations between Greece and creditors, which may lead to a default of Greece and its exit from the Eurozone. In addition, statistics from the US dollar strengthened. Thus, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the country was reduced to 267 thousand vs. expected 278 thousand, the index of leading economic indicators was 0.7% in May against the expected 0.4%, but the consumer price index rose to 0.4%, against previous value of 0.1% and 0.5% of the forecast. Today, the course of trading will be influenced by the statements regarding the future of Greece and the balance of payments data for the euro area (08:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound has stabilized after the strong growth in the previous days. Investors decided to take some profits. Positive for the British currency yesterday was the statistics on retail sales, which rose 0.2% against the expected absence of growth. Today, investors will not rush to open long positions ahead of the weekend and will be watching the news on Greece. Our medium-term view remains negative.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the yen stabilized after strong volatility. Positive statistics in the US has led to a halt the strengthening yen. The Bank of Japan left monetary policy settings unchanged. Demand for the yen as a defensive asset may increase in case of a default by Greece. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the Japanese currency due to the loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and the expectation of a stronger US dollar.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar earlier showed growth against the backdrop of the weakening US dollar, but it was a short-term and quotes currently are declining. Support for the Australian currency has been the growth of quotations of gold, which is one of the most important export commodities for the country. It is worth noting that the quotes of the Australian dollar is still under the pressure of low prices for iron ore and the risks associated with the weakening in China. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to move inside the downward trend after the decline in interest rates of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, as well as in connection with the publication of weak statistics on the growth of GDP, which in the first quarter was only 0.2%, vs. expected 0.6%. In addition, the quotes are under the pressure of deterioration of the situation in the agricultural sector of the country against the backdrop of lower prices for dairy products. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook and recommend holding short positions on the New Zealand currency.