19.07.2016 - The Australian dollar fell after the publication of the RBA meeting minutes

Currency trading and the euro. Price of euro continues to consolidate in anticipation of the ECB's decision on monetary policy and a press conference by ECB President Mario Draghi on Thursday. We do not expect a change in monetary policy settings in the euro area, but do not exclude out a hint of such acts before the end of the year. The ECB is likely to continue to monitor the macroeconomic indicators and the effect of the expected exit of Great Britain from the EU. Today, it is worth paying attention to the data on the index of business confidence in the Eurozone (09:00 GMT) and statistics on the housing market in the US (12:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative.

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound is consolidating after recently showed a decrease. Investors are waiting for the publication of important statistics on inflation (08:30 GMT) and tomorrow's labor market report that can greatly affect the British pound. It is worth noting that the price of the British pound will be under the pressure of negative expectations about the exit of Great Britain from the EU. We see no reason for the growth of the British currency quotations, and expect to see a continued decline of the British pound in the medium term.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen is consolidating after last week's decline. Events in Turkey had a limited impact on the dynamics of the Japanese currency and as a result, investors continue to monitor the macroeconomic indicators in the US, statements with respect to monetary policy in Japan and estimated effects of the UK’s exit from the EU. In the near future, the yen may resume its growth against the background of an expected decline on the stock markets. Our medium-term outlook remains negative for the yen.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar fell after have been published the minutes of the previous RBA meeting during which decided not to change interest rates, but noted the possibility of their reduction at the next meeting. Growth of Australian currency continues to adversely affect the prospects of the local economy. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the data on the index of leading economic indicators. In the near future the dynamics of trading will be negatively affected by lower commodity prices. Our medium-term outlook is pessimistic.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continued its decline after a positive trend has changed to negative. Investors fixed position after unreasonably strong growth as well as the pressure of the negative dynamics of the Australian dollar and commodity prices. Following the recent decline is likely to price correction, but according to our estimates it will be short and the negative dynamics will continue in the near future and medium term.

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