19.10.2015 - The fall on commodity markets may continue
The price of gold corrected downward after strong growth in recent time. After reaching the level of 1190 dollars per ounce on the market has appeared an information about the growth of core inflation in the US by 0.2% in September, which has led to speculation about the possibility of another increase in interest rates of the Fed this year, which will negatively affect the demand for gold. Statistics from China today showed slowing GDP growth to 6.9% vs. expected 6.8% and the previous figure of 7.0%. As a result, the demand for defensive assets fell slightly. Interest in gold in the near future will be supported by purchases of jewelry in Southeast Asia due to the holiday season. We expect the growth of gold in the near future.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil corrected upwards at the end of the trading week, but later resumed its decline against the backdrop of a number of negative factors that compensate the effect of the reduction in oil production in the United States to 9.1 million barrels per day against the highest level of this year, 9.6 million barrel per day, which was recorded in April. Currently, oil inventories in the US are by 26% higher than last year. At the same time, it is worth noting saving of oversupply of oil on world markets and the expectation of its growth by additional 700 thousand barrels of oil per day from Iran, which will be released to the market after the lifting of sanctions. Data on the reduction of industrial growth in China to 5.7% in September vs. expected 6.0% today added pessimism on the market. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook and recommend holding short positions.