19.11.2015 - Investor sentiment on the market improved significantly
American stock indexes showed strong growth yesterday. Statistics on the US housing market has been controversial, but pointed to maintaining of positive trends in the sector. It is worth noting that the number of housing starts in October fell to 1.06 million, which is 0.1 million less than the forecast. At the same time, the number of permits for new homes construction rose to 1.15 million, which has met the forecasts. The minutes of the previous meeting of the Federal Reserve noted that majority of members support the idea of the Fed raising interest rates in December and positive data on the labor market and inflation, which were published after the meeting, reinforce the probability of monetary policy tightening in the United States. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the number of initial unemployment claims (13:30 GMT) and the Philadelphia manufacturing PMI (15:00 GMT). We expect growth in the medium term, but in order to overcome historical maximums will be needed a substantial boost.
European stock markets showed strong growth against the general optimism of stock markets. Increase in indexes in the United States and Asia has given positive momentum at the beginning of the trading session. Today, the mood of investors in the region will be affected by the news of the balance of payments in the euro area (09:00 GMT), which may disappoint investors, retail sales (09:30 GMT) and the balance of production orders in the United Kingdom (11:00 GMT) . In addition, a rise in volatility is possible after the publication of minutes of the previous meeting of the ECB (12:30 GMT). It will be recalled that on December 3 will be held a regular meeting of the ECB in which can be taken additional measures to stimulate the economy in the Eurozone. Therefore, we maintain a medium-term negative outlook.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed growth today following the US indexes. The reason for the growth in Japan were positive trade balance of the country, the deficit is reduced in spite of the negative impact of deterioration of the situation in China. Thus, the deficit totaled 0.20 trillion yen against the expected 0.38 trillion yen. The Bank of Japan said that the country's economy continues to recover at a moderate pace and its slowdown in the third quarter was due to the fall in stocks. Inflation in the country will get closer to the level of 2% in 2016 in the case of a gradual recovery in oil prices. We expect growth in the stock markets in the region in the medium term.