19.11.2015 - ​The US dollar has weakened

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro rose yesterday against the US dollar on a background of mixed statistics on the US housing market. Thus, the number of housing starts fell in October to 1.06 million vs. expected 1.16 million and 1.19 million in the previous period. At the same time the number of permits issued for construction of new homes totaled 1.15 million, in line with expectations. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, who is entitled to vote at the next meeting of the Fed, said about the need to raise interest rates in December. Minutes of the previous meeting of the Federal Reserve has led to an increase in the likelihood of higher interest rates to 72%. Today, the dynamics of trading will be affected by the balance of payments data for the euro area (09:00 GMT), the number of initial unemployment claims (13:30 GMT) and the Philadelphia manufacturing PMI (15:00 GMT). We expect the decline of the euro in the medium term.

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound rose against the background of statements by the Bank of England Broadbent, in which he noted that inflation in the UK in 2016 may exceed the target level of 2.0%. These projections increase the possibility of raising interest rates of the Bank of England, which will boost the British currency. Today, the dynamics of trading will be affected by retail sales (09:30 GMT) and the balance of production orders (11:00 GMT). We expect increased volatility today and maintain the medium-term negative outlook.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen rose today against the background of improving the trade balance deficit which in October fell to 0.20 trillion against the expected 0.38 trillion. Exports fell by 4.6% and imports decreased by 13.4%. The Japanese economy is under pressure of weakening demand from Chinese consumers. Today was also published statement by the Bank of Japan, which has decided not to change the parameters of monetary policy. Our medium-term outlook for the yen remains negative.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed growth after a long consolidation, amid the weakening US dollar. Iron ore prices continue to be near their lowest levels this year and their impact on the price of the Australian currency has declined. Current growth may continue in the near future, but its potential is limited. In the coming days, the dynamics of trading will be influenced by external factors. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar rose after the Australian currency against the weakening US dollar. The producer price index in New Zealand at the output amounted to 1.3% in the third quarter, that was significantly higher than the forecast 0.2%. Rising inflation will deter further easing of monetary policy in the country, which is positive for the currency. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook, but the current growth can continue.

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