19.12.2014 - American indexes approached historic highs
The US stock market yesterday showed a strong growth due to the Fed's statement on the timing of interest rate increases. Thus, until the April meeting of the Fed should not expect higher interest rates, but in the future it will grow depending on the macroeconomic indicators. Markets were also supported by positive data on the labor market, where the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to the level of 289 thousand against the expected 297 thousand. At the same time, it is worth noting a decrease service PMI to 53.6, compared with an expected 56.2. Today we expect fixation of positions after strong growth in the previous days. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Major European indexes yesterday showed strong growth against a background of improving investor sentiment in the world after the US Federal Reserve statement. It is worth noting the positive statistics on retail sales in the UK, which grew by 1.6%, which is 1.3% better than analysts' expectations. This fact points to the growth of the economy. Today is also worth paying attention to the data on the balance of retail sales in the UK (11:00 GMT). Statistics on reducing balance of payments surplus in the euro area to 20.5 billion against the expected 27.8 billion in October, disappointed investors. On the other hand, the index of consumer confidence in Germany rose to 9.0, which is 0.1 better than expected. We forecast early completion and the growth of European indexes and maintain a medium-term negative outlook.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed a positive trend against the background of the American and European stock markets. The Bank of Japan today announced on saving parameters of monetary policy. Let us remind that the purpose of asset purchases for 80 trillion yen annually is rising inflation, which is under the pressure of low oil prices. The main negative factor that will continue to put pressure on the stock price remains the deterioration of macroeconomic indicators in China and Japan. We forecast limited growth in the near future and maintain the medium-term negative view on the growth prospects of the stock markets in the region.