19.02.2014 - Dollar declines on weak statistics

U.S. indexes showed mixed performances. Statistics, which was published yesterday, appeared to be negative. Thus, the index of business activity in the housing market in February has fallen to 46 against the forecast of 56. The Empire State manufacturing index declined to 4.5 at the forecast 9.9. At the same time, the balance of payments of the Eurozone declined to 21.3 billion in December, with an expected drop to 19.8 billion. PMI in Eurozone disappointed analysts and came out at 68.5 against expectations of 73.9.

On this background euro has fixed above 1.37 and continued an upward movement. We expect continuation of growth to the level of 1.3810. The course of trading today can be influenced by statistics on the housing market in the U.S. (13:30 GMT). The minutes of the previous meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee Federal Reserve will be published at 19:00 GMT.


The British pound continued correction on the background of data on consumer and production inflation. Investors do not hurry to build up new positions before the publication of data on the labor market that will be released tomorrow. In case of reducing unemployment, we expect the resumption of growth of GBP/USD.

The price of USD/JPY continues to fall after a sharp rise of prices on the background of statement of the Bank of Japan on keeping monetary policy of the central bank unchanged and the doubling of the two programs, which are aimed at increasing lending in the country. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the trade balance of the country.

The price of Australian dollar continues to move in the corridor 0,90-0,9070. Volatility can grow tomorrow after publication of data on business activity in the manufacturing sector in China. Let us remind that China is a major trading partner of Australia.

Prices for Light Sweet crude oil grew due to a weaker dollar and lower oil inventories. The reason for an increased demand for distillers was worsening of weather conditions in the country. After the weather improvement, we expect the decline in inventories of crude oil and petroleum products and as a result the price reductions. It should be noted that bulls are supported by news about oil supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Gold prices continue to correct after a strong growth in recent weeks. Purchases may be resumed near the level 1 310 dollars per troy ounce. Concerns about the growth prospects of the global stock indexes, as well as the weakening of the U.S. dollar play on a hand of the bulls. A stimulus for continued growth can become a decision to revise prohibition of imports of gold in India, that is the world's second largest consumer of the metal after China.

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