19.05.2014 - In the United States will build more homes
of euro continued its decline on the background of positive statistics on the
U.S. housing market, which has led to strengthening of the dollar. Thus, the
number of housing starts rose by 13.2% in April, to 1.07 million. It should be
noted that the highest growth was recorded in the construction of multifamily
housing whose cost is higher than single-family. Trade surplus in the euro area
in March rose to 15.2 billion compared with an expected 17.3 billion. Today we
should pay attention to the monthly report of the German central bank and the
speech of its head (7:00 GMT). We do not expect strong movements this week. It
is worth recalling that at the weekend will pass elections to the European
Parliament and the presidential elections in Ukraine, in anticipation of which
we expect growth of geopolitical tensions in the world. We maintain a long-term
The price of the British pound continued ascending movement within the correction and despite strong data on the U.S. labor market. The reason for the growth is the steady increase of economic indicators in the country among which is the fall in unemployment and trade surplus. Today is not expected the release of important macro, but tomorrow we should pay attention to data on inflation in the country. We save medium and long term positive outlook for the pound.
The price of USD/JPY continues to consolidate above the strong support at 101.40. Growth of demand for the yen is explained by geopolitical tensions and the weakness of the U.S. dollar despite the strong data on the labor market and the housing market in the country. A positive factor for the yen was also the rise in domestic orders for machinery by 19.1% in March, compared with an expected 6.1%. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the index of business activity in Japan, and on Wednesday, will be released the data on the trade balance of the country and will be published monthly economic report of the Bank of Japan. We maintain our medium-and long-term positive outlook for the pair and expect the resumption of growth in the near future.
The price of the Australian dollar continues to consolidate in the corridor 0,9320-0,9400. Increased activity of traders is expected tonight, after the release of data on the index of leading economic indicators and the publication of minutes of the previous meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia. We expect introduction of additional measures to fight the low level of inflation in the country. In addition the quotes of the Australian currency is under the pressure of expectations of lower iron ore prices and the slowdown in the industry in China. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar.
The price of the New Zealand dollar has strengthened, but continues to move within the side corridor. The reason for the growth was the data on consumer price inflation which rose by 1.0% in the 1st quarter of the year, against the forecast of 0.5%. The Producer Price Index increased by 0.9% vs. expected 0.4%. This fact reduces the possibility of foreign exchange intervention by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. We expect that in the near future, the price of the New Zealand dollar will continue to move in within the side channel.