19.08.2014 - Oil continues to fall on the background of increasing supply

The price of gold continued its gradual decline amid strengthening of the American currency after the release of data on the growth of business activity index in the housing market of the United States to 55 in August compared with an expected 53. In addition, investors reacted positively to the reduction of tensions in Ukraine, despite the lack of a result in negotiations between Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany in Berlin. The central event of the week will be the speech of Fed Chairman at the conference in Jackson Hole on 22 August. Investors expect that Mrs. Yellen will tell about the future monetary policy of the Fed. We maintain our positive outlook for the medium-term, but admit the possibility of the fall of the price of gold against the strengthening of the dollar.

The price of American Light Sweet crude oil continues to decline due to lower level of geopolitical tensions. Investors calmed down after a series of air strikes of American aviation on militant positions in Iraq, which reduces the risk of disruptions in oil supplies. It is worth noting the growth of oil production in Libya up to 535 thousand barrels per day, compared to 400 thousand last week. Oil demand in Europe and Asia remains weak, and production increases. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for oil due to lower demand for oil and increasing supply on world markets.

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