20.01.2015 - Statistics from China has improved the mood of investors
US stock markets were closed yesterday in connection with celebrating Martin Luther King Day. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the index of business activity on the US housing market in January (15:00 GMT). Negative factor for investors today was the downward revision of growth of the world economy by the IMF in 2015. Previously was expected the increase by 3.8%, but now the forecast was lowered to 3.5%. Investors expect the ECB decision on the quantitative easing, which should be taken at a meeting of the ECB on January 22. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the US stock market, but we can see continued growth in the short term.
European stock markets have stopped the growth because of the deteriorating global growth forecasts by the IMF. At the same time, the index of business sentiment in the Eurozone rose to 45.2, against the forecast of 37.6. Investors are waiting for the ECB's decision to launch a full-scale asset purchasing program. We recall that the ECB meeting will be held on January 22. The political crisis in Greece, which may lead to a change of government in the country threatens financial stability in the euro area. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook, but the launch of the program of quantitative easing will support the growth of the markets in the near future.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed strong growth against a background of positive statistics from China, where GDP growth in the 4th quarter compared to the same period of the previous year was 7.3%, which is 0.1% better than analysts' expectations. Industrial output in November rose to 7.9%, compared with an expected 7.4%. At the same time, the fall of the exchange rate of the yen has increased the demand for shares of exporting companies. Tomorrow will be published statistics on consumer confidence in Australia and the Bank of Japan's statement on monetary policy. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook, which may be revised in case of new stimulus measures in China and Japan.