20.01.2015 - The Chinese economy grew by 7.3%
The price of euro after a slight correction yesterday, continued to decline and currently is trying to update its lowest level since 2008. Reasons for the decline still are the expectation of the ECB meeting on January 22 which will consider launching a program of quantitative easing, as well as parliamentary elections in Greece, where according to the polls will win the opposition Syriza, whose members oppose the austerity measures in the country, that is necessary to restructure the country's debt, and can also lead to the exit of Greece from the Eurozone. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the index of business sentiment Eurozone (10:00 GMT) and the index of activity in the US housing market (15:00 GMT). We maintain our medium-term negative outlook and recommend holding short positions.
The price of the British pound continues to decline in a downtrend against the strengthening of the US dollar under the pressure and a rapid fall of the euro. It is worth recalling that the pace of economic growth in the UK began to slow, but remain the highest among developed countries. Today in the UK will not be published important macroeconomic data and investors will wait for tomorrow's data on the labor market in the country and the voting on monetary policy. We expect further price decline of the British currency in the medium term.
The price of the Japanese yen today showed a decrease on the background of positive statistics from China, which has reduced the level of investors' fears and reduce the demand for defensive assets. Despite this, growth can occur in the near future against the background of the results of the elections in Greece, which threaten the stability of the financial sector in the Eurozone. Tomorrow will be published statements of the Bank of Japan on monetary policy, which may declare on the plans of policy easing, resulting in a decline of the yen. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the yen, but assume another strengthening amid growing demand for defensive assets.
The price of the Australian currency fell today after a statement by the representative of one of the largest investment companies BlackRock on the possible continuation of falling prices in 2015 by 15%. It was also noted the possibility of a sharp decline in case of continued negative dynamics of commodity prices. At the same time, investors have been supported by the news of China's GDP growth in the 4th quarter by 7.3% against the same period last year, which is better than the forecast by 0.1%. At the same time industrial production growth in China accelerated to 7.9%, which is 0.5% better than analysts' expectations. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar.
The price of the New Zealand currency continued to decline despite the positive data from China and the statistics on the index business sentiment in New Zealand in the 4th quarter of 2014, which rose to 23, which is better than the previous figure 19. Investors expect a further decline ofe vtyt the New Zealand dollar quotations in connection with the low prices of export commodities, the main of which are dairy products and other agricultural commodities. We expect a further fall in prices in the near future and maintain the medium-term negative outlook.